Verve! Management Consulting

Hitchhiker's guide to future

By Ziv Navoth

Future Scenarios: How are they developed, why, and what do they look like?

It's not about picking the right future or asking what will happen, but rather what will we do if this happens.

If you have time, read "The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World" by Peter Schwartz.

If you have time, read Kim Stanley Robinson's "Three Californias" Trilogy: "The Wild Shore","The Gold Coast" and "Pacific Edge".

If you have time, read Bruce Sterling's "Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years".

If you don't have time, read Schwartz's GBN article "The Art of Preparing for an Uncertain Future".

Trends: How do they emerge and how (and by whom) are they discovered

Who decides what's cool? Certain people in certain places--and only the coolhunters know who they are.

If you have time, watch "Merchants of Cool", A PBS Frontline documentary on the creators and sellers of popular culture who have made teenagers the hottest consumer demographic in America.

If you have time, read "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference" by Malcolm Gladwell.

If you don't have time, read Gladwell's New Yorker article "The Coolhunt".

The Future of Work: How will business be organized in the future?

Mega Corporations or Free Agents? Shifting networks of small firms or all-encompassing "Virtual Countries"?

If you have time, read "Managing in the Next Society" by Peter Drucker.

If you have time, read "The Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style and Your Life" by Thomas Malone.

If you don't have time, read Malone's MIT paper "Two Scenarios for 21st Century Organizations".

The Planet: Is it getting better or getting worse?

Environmentalists tend to believe that, ecologically speaking, things are getting worse and worse. Bjorn Lomborg, once deep green himself, argues that they are wrong in almost every particular.

If you have time, read "The Skeptical Environmentalist" by Bjorn Lomborg.

If you don't have time, read the Economist article "The truth about the environment"

Also, check out these Wired articles: "The Doomslayer" and "The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020".

It's Up To You: Can individuals really make a difference?

All you need to do is imagine.

If you have time, read the short story "The Toynbee Convector" by Ray Bradbury.

If you don't have time, read its intriguing synopsis.

The Future of Society: What can the present teach us about the future?

If you have time, read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman.

If you don't have time, see Friedman's video.

Ziv Navoth helps organizations improve their performance by creating a unique and valuable position in the marketplace. He is the Managing Director of Verve! (www.verve.nu) and can be reached at ziv@verve.nu.